Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 250605

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0545 UTC.


A tropical wave came off the coast of Africa earlier today. There
is a broad area of low pressure associated with the wave, which
axis is near 20W. This wave, not depicted in the 0000 UTC analysis
map, is in a region of favorable wind shear, is in a very moist
environment and is under a divergent flow aloft, which is
supporting heavy showers and tstms from 03N-09N E of 29W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 
16N36W to 03N40W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The
wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear. However, 
the CIRA LPW imagery show extensive dry air in the wave 
environment, which coincide with Meteosat enhanced imagery of 
Saharan dry air and dust. This is supporting lack of convection N
of 5N. Numerous heavy showers and isolated tstms associated with
the ITCZ are from 02N-05N between 38W and 47W. 

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis extending 
from 17N54W to inland Guyana near 05N57W, moving W at 15-20 kt 
within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable to 
neutral wind shear S of 10N and is in a very moist environment 
with some patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW. Scattered to
isolated showers are S of 17N between 52W and 63W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending 
from 18N71W to inland Venezuela near 08N72W, moving west at 15 
knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of 
unfavorable wind shear and a deep layer dry environment that
hinder deep convection at the time. 


The Monsoon Trough extends from the Africa coast near 08N13W to 
07N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis begins near 
07N21W and continues to 08N30W to 05N38W, then resumes W of a 
tropical wave near 03N41W and continues to 04N51W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered heavy
showers are from 04N-10N between 32W-36W.



High pressure over the western Atlantic has a ridge axis that 
extends SW across the north-central and NE Gulf where a 1019 mb
high formed near 28N84W supporting light to gentle variable winds.
The upper level low that was in the Bay of Campeche Saturday
morning is now over the NW Gulf waters. Upper level divergence
being generated between its SE periphery and a broad upper ridge
over the EPAC waters just S of Mexico support heavy showers and
tstms S of 25N, including the Bay of Campeche. This convective
activity is also being supported by moisture inflow from tropical
depression four located in the EPAC waters S of Acapulco Mexico.
Heavy showers and tstms will continue in the SW Gulf and will
extend to the NW basin later today. This shower activity is
forecast to continue at least through Tuesday. Otherwise, a weak 
frontal boundary over the southern United States will drift into 
the northern Gulf coast today, increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms over the northern Gulf coastal waters.


Scattered to isolated heavy showers and tstms are in the far NW
Caribbean associated with the rainbands of tropical depression 
four located in the EPAC waters S of Acapulco Mexico. Numerous
heavy showers and tstms are over Caribbean waters between 
Colombia and Panama associated with the EPAC monsoon trough, which
extends across Panama and connect with a 1009 mb low over
Colombia. A tropical wave moves across the central basin, thus
supporting fresh to near gale force winds from 11N to 13N between
74W and 76W and fresh to strong between 68W and 77W. These winds
are forecast to prevail through Sunday night. Otherwise, a
tropical wave E of the Lesser Antilles has started to generate
isolated heavy showers and tstms across the Windward Islands and
SE Caribbean waters. Please refer to the tropical waves section 
for more details. 


Widely scattered showers will affect the southern portion of the 
island through Sunday as a tropical wave passes to the south. 


Three tropical waves are crossing the tropical Atlantic waters. 
Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. Otherwise,
the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the 
influence of surface ridging anchored by a 1027 mb high centered 
N of the Azores near 39N27W.

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Page last modified: Sunday, 25-Jun-2017 06:05:44 UTC