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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221725
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

AT 1500 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 
48.0W OR ABOUT 750 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY EXPECTED 
THROUGH WED...BUT SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST WED NIGHT AND THU 
DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE 
INTO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WITHIN 2-3 DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 46W-49W. SEE 
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-75W WITH SEAS 10-12 FT. TIGHT 
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE CONDITIONS 
DURING LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THROUGH WED...WITH WINDS 
BRIEFLY DROPPING BELOW GALE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE THE 
LATEST ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
20N38W TO 12N39W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF 14N HINDERING 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
22N81W TO 10N82W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH 
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TOGETHER AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE CENTRAL 
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 21N93W TO THE 
E PACIFIC AT 8N95W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE WAVE HAVE DIMINISHED PAST 3-6 HOURS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 
5N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EAST OF T.D. TWO 
EXTENDS FROM 11N35W TO 13N46W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF T.D. TWO 
FROM 11N49W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 9N61W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N AND 75 NM 
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN E OF 29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N89W WITH A 
1016 MB LOW REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT 
NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL SOUTH 
OF THE LOW FROM 27N TO 28.5N BETWEEN 86W-93W. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC 
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF...AND LIGHT TO 
MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA...AND EXTREME SE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER 
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                            

15-25 KT TRADE WINDS PREVAIL OVER REMAINDER OF THE BASIN OUTSIDE 
WITH STRONGEST WINDS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. 
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT IN THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT 
ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS FROM 
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER 
JAMAICA IS ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE 
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. LITTLE CHANGE 
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR JAMAICA IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W TO THE 
CAYMAN ISLANDS THROUGH WED. EXPECT ACTIVE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION 
OVER HISPANIOLA DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING MAXIMUM. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF CUBA W 
OF 77W DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE 
ALONG 82W AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED 
NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA. A BROAD RIDGE ALONG 30-31N ANCHORED BY 1026 
MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N39W PRODUCING 
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ALL ACROSS THE REGION E OF 77W WITH NOTABLE 
EXCEPTION OF SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH 
T.D. TWO IN THE DEEP TROPICS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED 
NEAR 27N65W IS SUPPORTING STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. A LARGE 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N50W IS SUPPORTING MODERATE 
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL