793 AXNT20 KNHC 152337 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Jul 15 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93): Satellite and radar data indicate that the low pressure area previously over the Atlantic is moving onto the coast of northeastern Florida. This system is currently producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity, and little development is expected through tonight while the center is over land. Once the system reaches the northeastern Gulf on Wednesday, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf and approaches the coast of Louisiana on Thursday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida through Wednesday. Heavy rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the north-central Gulf Coast beginning Wednesday and continuing through Friday.This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours and also during the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has emerged off the coast of West Africa. The wave extends from 06N to 20N with axis near 18W, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 09N to 17N between 12W and 21W. A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis near 55W southward from 19N. The wave continues to move westward at 15-20 kt. There is no convection found near this wave. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis near 67W, extending southward from 20N, and moving westward around 15 kt. There is no convection found near this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of W Africa near 18N16W, then curves southwestward through 10N27W to 05N39W. The ITCZ continues NW to 08N53W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave E of the Cape Verde Inslads, a 1011 mb low embedded in the monsoon near 06N36W is generating scattered moderate convection from 00N to 10N between 31W and 45W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure of 1020 mb across the north-central Gulf extends a ridge southward to the Yucatan Channel and supports light to gentle variable winds along with slight seas N of 23N and E of 93W. Moderate SE winds with seas to 4 ft are W of 93W to the W of the High center. Over the Bay of Campeche and along the adjacent waters of the Yucatan Peninsula, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE. Otherwise, a 1013 mb low pressure, Invest AL93, over northern Florida, is generating scattered heavy showers over most of the E Gulf, E of 88W and N of 24N. For the forecast, the high pressure will drift slowly W-NW and settle across the NW Gulf through Thu. Invest AL93 is forecast to move inland northern Florida tonight and reach the NE Gulf on Wed, at which time environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves across the NE and north-central Gulf and approaches the coast of Louisiana on Thu. Regardless, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds along with locally rough seas, will accompany this system. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Middle to upper level diffluence along with abundant moisture is supporting heavy showers along Cuba and adjacent southern waters. Otherwise, the resultant pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over NW Colombia continue to support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central and portions of the SW basin, and moderate to fresh easterlies elsewhere E of 80W. Seas across the central and eastern basin are moderate to 7 ft, except to 8 ft offshore Colombia. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are elsewhere over the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, Central Atlantic high pressure will gradually build westward toward Florida and into the eastern Gulf of America through Sat. Fresh to strong trades and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean will expand across most of the central portions of the basin Wed through Sat as the Atlantic high pressure shifts northward. These winds are expected to diminish some in coverage during the upcoming weekend. Fresh E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras Thu through Sat. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean through the period while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail in the NW portions. A pair of tropical waves will move through the basin through Fri, mainly producing active weather across the SW Caribbean waters Fri through Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The low associated with Invest AL93 is over northern Florida and showers are mainly inland. To the east, the Bermuda High and associated ridge dominates the SW N Atlantic waters as well as most of the central subtropical waters. The proximity of the low to the NE Florida coast continues to support moderate to fresh SE winds extending to just N of Freeport. Seas off NE Florida are moderate to 6 ft. The pressure gradient resulting from the High and a tropical wave moving through La Mona Passage is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico with seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere in the SW N Atlantic, winds are moderate or weaker and seas slight to moderate. Over the central subtropics, the tail of a cold front extends from 31N35W to 26N51W. Moderate N to NE winds along with seas to 7 ft follow this front. Surface ridging and moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere in the E subtropical Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, the low will continue to move inland northern Florida tonight and reach the NE Gulf on Wed, at which time environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves across the NE and north-central Gulf. High pressure over the central Atlantic will then build westward across the region and across Florida late tonight through Sat in the wake of the low pressure. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be south of 28N and west of 75W tonight into early Wed morning. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge building westward and the low pressure will support moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the Bahamas and through the NW zones through early Thu. Fresh to strong trades are expected south of the central Bahamas to along the coasts of Cuba and Hispaniola through Thu night, then mostly fresh trades through Fri night. $$ Ramos
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 16-Jul-2025 04:50:09 UTC