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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 021744
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-
13N BETWEEN 74W-77W UNTIL 1800 UTC THEN WILL OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT 
THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIGHT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE AND THE LOWER 
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                          

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 29W/30W FROM 
9N-15N MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE 
GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG 700 MB TROUGH...THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE DOES NOT HAVE THE 
ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT 
AND THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS 
BETWEEN PLUMBS OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP 
CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N64W THROUGH THE 
VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 12N62W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE N OF THE 
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING 
EDGE OF A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST OVER THE CARIBBEAN. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 
60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 29N58W TO 23N64W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM 21N92W ACROSS 
MEXICO NEAR 18N93W MOVING W-NW 25-30 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. 
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL 
PRODUCT AND THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE 
WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN 
DUST LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E 
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W ALONG 14N20W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE 
NEAR 12N28W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 12N31W THEN TO A 
1012 MB LOW NEAR 12N41W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
ALONG 12N53W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 11N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE MONSOON TROF TO THE COAST 
OF AFRICA BETWEEN 14N-16N...FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 30W-39W AND 
FROM 11N-12N BETWEEN 41W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 43W-46W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FAR 
SE CONUS ANCHORED OVER THE W TEXAS/MEXICO EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS 
FROM NE TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS. A 
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CONUS INTO THE NW ATLC  
SUPPORTING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 LOW 
CENTERED OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA ALONG 28N88W 28N93W 
TO 26N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-
29N E OF 88W TO OVER FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. 
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. 
THE LOW WILL MOVE NE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY CARRYING 
THE WEAKENING FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OUT OF THE AREA BY 
MON NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD W ACROSS THE GULF REGION 
ALONG 26N THROUGH TUE WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING 
ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE E/CENTRAL GULF BY MON. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR NW 
CARIBBEAN. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED S OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 
17N65W AND A SECOND UPPER LOW BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMA 
ISLANDS. THE AREA OF DIFFLUNCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES 
IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-21N 
BETWEEN 78W-86W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN 
UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL 
MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE S/CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE DURING THE 
EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AGAIN TONIGHT. E 
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON 
NIGHT AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS HAITI WITH SOME CLOUDS 
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE NOAA/NESDIS 
AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT 
THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST 
WHICH IS LIMITING ANY DEEP SHOWERS. HOWEVER WITH THE DAYTIME 
HEATING...AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS 
COULD DEVELOP. THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS 
THE ISLAND TONIGHT AND MON INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW 
CENTERED BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N76W AND A 
SECOND UPPER LOW S OF PUERTO RICO. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 29N72W 
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N78W. 
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH 
NEAR 29N36W AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N54W WITH A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING W TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH SAT THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT N REACHING TO S FLORIDA 
ON SUN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH 
TUE.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW

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Page last modified: Sunday, 02-Aug-2015 17:44:59 UTC