Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 301715

205 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

As of 1500 UTC, Bonnie was downgraded to a post-tropical remnant
low over coastal South Carolina. Isolated thunderstorms are well
removed from the low center from 30N to 31N between 78W and 80W.
See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                       
Tropical wave extends from 13N13W to 03N12W moving W at around
15 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between
10W and 18W and 850 mb relative vorticity along the northern
portion of the wave axis. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 02N to 08N between 07W and 15W. 

Tropical wave extends from 13N35W to 05N32W moving W at an
estimated 15 to 20 kt. This wave is noted in 700 mb global model
fields at the leading edge of a low to mid-level easterly jet on
the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored over the
Cape Verde Islands. No significant deep convection is occurring
in the vicinity of the wave at this time. A Saharan air layer is
noted northeast of this wave. 

Tropical wave extends from 12N47W to 02N49W moving W at around
20 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between
45W and 53W. This wave is embedded at the western end of a broad
area of deep moisture over the central Atlc. Isolated moderate
convection is from 03N to 09N between 46W and 57W.

Tropical wave extends from 15N78W to 05N75W moving W at 15 to 20
kt. The wave remains embedded within 700 mb troughing over
northwestern South America and portions of the southwestern
Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
are from 11N to 17N between 73W and 78W. This convection is
likely being enhanced by the presence of a middle to upper level

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to
05N24W, where the ITCZ begins and extends to 04N30W to 02N40W to
01N50W. Isolated moderate convection is from the Equator to 08N
between 37W and 44W.


A 1017 mb high is centered near 29N89W and
supports gentle to moderate winds over the Gulf northwest of a
line from 28N96W to 22N89W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are
over the southwestern Gulf, especially near a thermally induced
surface trough that as of 1200 UTC extended from 22N94W to
18N94W. A shortwave trough over Texas/Oklahoma supports a
cluster of thunderstorms over the extreme northwestern Gulf
north of 27N, west of 95W. The shortwave is forecast to lift
northeast and away from the region through Tuesday, which will
help to lessen chances for convection over the northwestern
Gulf. Otherwise, little change is forecast over the Gulf basin
over the next 24 hours.  

A middle to upper level trough extends from
north of the Bahamas to central Cuba to the southwestern
Caribbean. Dry air and subsidence dominates the northwest
Caribbean northwest of the trough axis. The interaction of the
base of this trough with a westward moving tropical wave
supports convection over the central and southwestern Caribbean.
Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details.
Deep moisture over the eastern Caribbean supports showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the region. Mainly gentle to
moderate trade winds cover the Caribbean today, except for
locally fresh over the southeastern Caribbean. Over the next 24
hours deep moisture combined with the middle to upper trough
will support showers and thunderstorms across the central
Caribbean and Greater Antilles. 

A middle to upper level trough with an axis to the west of the
area will support enhanced coverage of showers and thunderstorms
across Hispaniola for the next couple of days. 

Bonnie has been downgraded to a post tropical
remnant low. Please refer to the special features section for
more details. A broad middle to upper trough extends from north
of the Bahamas to central Cuba. A reflection of this upper
trough in the form of a surface trough extends from near 30N73W
to 22N74W. Clusters of moderate convection are within 120 nm of
the trough axis. Scattered thunderstorms are over the central
and northern Bahamas. Another surface trough extends from 27N68W
to 24N68W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 240 nm
of either side of the trough axis. Farther east, a pre-frontal
trough extends from 30N42W to 28N56W. No deep convection is
noted. A surface ridge anchored by a pair of 1023 mb surface
high centers near 26N46W and 28N28W dominates the remainder of
the central and eastern Atlc. Three tropical waves are over the
tropical Atlc. Please refer to the tropical waves section for
more details. 

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Page last modified: Monday, 30-May-2016 17:15:26 UTC