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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 230605
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is 
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are 
forecast for the area that is called: AGADIR, for the AREA
FORECASTS that are valid until 24/0000 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone 07N11W, to 05N15W and 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W
to the Equator along 27W, to 01S31W and 04S37W. Convective 
precipitation: scattered strong from 04N to 06N between 14W and
17W, and from 02N southward between 17W and 21W. widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 04N southward between 21W and 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level NW wind flow is moving across the open
waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
also is present in water vapor imagery, in the entire area. 

A cold front passes through 32N69W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
30N74W, 28N79W, to the Florida east coast near 29N81W and to
30N82W in Florida. The front becomes stationary, and it continues
from 30N82W, through the Florida Panhandle, and beyond SE
Louisiana.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A 1021 
mb high pressure center is near 28N92W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL 
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N 
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none. 

MVFR: KGBK and KVOA. 

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF 
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in McAllen and Bay City. LIFR in Beaumont/Port Arthur.
LOUISIANA: IFR in Patterson. from MISSISSIPPI to ALABAMA: VFR.
FLORIDA: MVFR in Brooksville. IFR at the Tampa Executive Airport.
MVFR everywhere in the Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area,
and in Sarasota.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through 32N74W in the western
Atlantic Ocean, across the Bahamas and Cuba, to 18N82W in 
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Upper level SW wind flow is to the east of the line that runs from
the Windward Passage to NE coastal Nicaragua. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea to the west of the same 
Windward Passage-to-NE Nicaragua line.

Rainshowers are possible to the N, NE, and E of the line that runs
from 16N70W 15N64W 11N65W, and then to the N, NW, and W of the 
line that runs from 17N70W to 14N76W to 09N80W. This precipitation
is possible in scattered to broken low level clouds.

The 24-hour rainfall total in inches for the period ending at 
23/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.01 in 
Guadeloupe. 

...HISPANIOLA...

SW wind flow at all levels is moving across the island.
Rainshowers are possible inland, and in the coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo/La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1400
feet. Santiago and Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecasts for 250 MB and for 500 mb show that SW 
wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A 
trough will be approaching Hispaniola at the end of the 48-hour 
forecast time period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows 
that the first half of day one will consist of SW wind flow, and
that the second half of day one will consist of cyclonic wind flow
and the trough across the area. Expect cyclonic wind flow across 
the area during all of day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N69W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 
30N74W, 28N79W, to the Florida east coast near 29N81W and to 
30N82W in Florida. The front becomes stationary, and it continues 
from 30N82W, through the Florida Panhandle, and beyond SE 
Louisiana.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the east and to the west of 
the 32N46W 28N53W stationary front / 28N53W 27N64W 22N73W warm
front. A surface ridge passes through 32N37W 28N44W 25N51W to
19N65W.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT

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Page last modified: Thursday, 23-Mar-2017 06:05:18 UTC