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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280603
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W SW 
TO 02S14W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 03S23W TO 03S35W TO THE 
COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 05S E OF 04W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09S TO 01S BETWEEN 07W AND 32W... 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL S OF 03N 
W OF 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...    

A TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH BASE OVER THE SE GULF 
OF MEXICO IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT 
CURRENTLY EXTENDING OVER THE SW N ATLC TO THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 
NORTHERN GUATEMALA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE 
TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA... 
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF 
WHERE IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N95W. RIDGING AND A 
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF DUE TO THE 
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SUPPORT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OF 20 TO 
25 KT E OF 93W. NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15 KT IS OVER THE REMAINDER SW 
GULF WHILE LIGHTER WIND FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE NW BASIN. THE 
PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT ON THE STRAITS WILL MOVE OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO 
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
OVER THE FAR WESTERN N ATLC WATERS EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA 
STRAITS SW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH A 
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE 
SE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW 
CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 81W. WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW 
DRY AIR DOMINATING ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...WHICH IS 
FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE OVER THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN...INCREASING TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST 
OF COLOMBIA. LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER BASIN 
W OF 80W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL 
CUBA SW TO NORTHERN HONDURAS SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL 
DISSIPATE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH TAIL 
REACHING EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 

UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS THE 
ISLAND WHILE SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE SURROUNDS ITS 
COASTAL AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SOME 
CLOUDINESS BUT NO SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED. A COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE TAIL OF 
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS MOST 
HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
OVER THE FAR WESTERN N ATLC WATERS EXTENDS ALONG 31N77W SW TO 
26N80W...ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT 
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE SE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 72W...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN 
BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 
32N37W SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N35W SW TO 22N42W WITH 
NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING 
DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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Page last modified: Saturday, 28-Mar-2015 06:03:42 UTC