Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 230519

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1219 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.



A strong cold front is crossing the eastern Gulf of Mexico from
29N83W to 21N88W. Gale force northerly winds are occurring north 
of 23N west of the front with seas to 18 ft. There's also gale 
force winds occurring north of 25N and east of the front with seas
building to 11 ft. These conditions are expected to continue 
through the next 24 hours. For more information, please refer to 
the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers 


The same cold front noted above is approaching the southwest 
Atlantic supporting southwest winds ranging between 30-35 kt 
north of 29N west of 77W and seas building to 11 ft. These 
conditions continue through the next 48 hours as the front moves
across the area with winds increasing to 30 to 40 kt by Monday 
afternoon north of 23.5N within 150 nm east of the front. Please 
refer to the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The Monsoon Trough passes across the coast of Africa near 08N13W 
to 03N21W. The ITCZ begins from that point and extends to 00N43W.
Isolated moderate convection is observed within 100 nm on either
side of the ITCZ between 28W-43W. 



A vigorous upper-level trough over the southern United States 
supports a strong cold front that extends from 29N83W to 21N88W.  
Gale force winds are occurring both ahead of and behind the front
mainly north of 23N. Please refer to the Special Features section
for more details. The cold front will continue to move rapidly 
southeastward and exit the eastern Gulf by Monday morning. Winds 
and seas will gradually subside beginning Monday afternoon. 


A 1017 mb surface high is centered northeast of Puerto Rico and 
extends across most of the basin. The tail end of a surface 
trough, formerly a stationary front, extends over the Virgin 
Islands with isolated showers. The latest scatterometer data 
indicates gentle to moderate trades east of 78W and south of 15N 
west of 78W while fresh to strong southerly winds are north of 
15N west of 78W, ahead of an approaching cold front over the Gulf 
of Mexico. The cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean 
late tonight and reach from eastern Cuba to the Honduras/Nicaragua
border by Monday evening. Strong northwest winds will occur north
of the front. Little change is expected elsewhere. 


Dry air in subsidence prevails over island at this time. 
These conditions will prevail through early Monday. A cold front 
approaching from the northwest will bring increasing southerly 
winds Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Showers are possible on 
Tuesday through Tuesday night as the front crosses the island.


A strong cold front is approaching the southeastern 
United States supporting clusters of thunderstorms over the
Atlantic waters north of 29N west of 76W with strong to gale 
southwesterly winds. To the east, a 1016 mb surface high prevails
across the west Atlantic centered near 25N62W. A stationary front
extends from 31N42W to 25N48W, then transitions to a surface 
trough to 18N63W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 25N 
between 40W-44W. A 1029 mb area of high pressure centered near 
34N22W dominates the eastern Atlantic. Over the next 24 hours, 
thunderstorms and winds will increase over the Florida offshore 
waters in the vicinity of the approaching cold front with gale 
force winds. Please see the Special Features section above for 
more details regarding this gale.

For additional information please visit 



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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Jan-2017 05:19:38 UTC