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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 300559
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF 
COLOMBIA...FROM 11.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W...AND THOSE  
GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. SEA 
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 12 FEET TO 16 FEET. PLEASE 
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE 
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W FROM 13N 
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ITCZ-RELATED
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N56W 10N57W 7N58W... 
MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. 

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N61W 14N64W 
10N65W...MOVING WESTWARD 30 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W. 
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 18N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 
60W AND 70W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...ALONG 83W/84W...FROM 17N 
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. IT PASSES THROUGH 
EASTERN HONDURAS...EASTERN NICARAGUA...AND CENTRAL COSTA RICA. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 84W AND 86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE COASTAL 
PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS 
REACHING THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COSTA RICA ALONG 10N 
ALSO. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA 
NEAR 21N17W TO 14N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO 8N30W 
5N40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 120 
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N18W 7N28W 5N45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT 
LAKES AREA OF THE U.S.A. TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN TEXAS AND 
OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA...AND MISSISSIPPI.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 23N87W AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. 
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN A RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 150 NM AWAY 
FROM THE 23N87W CYCLONIC CENTER.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY 
WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
THE GULF OF MEXICO. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND 
FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH HAS 
EMERGED FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NOW IT IS ALONG 23N90W 
21N92W 18N93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN 
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN THE WATERS FROM 22N SOUTHWARD FROM 
93W WESTWARD. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE 
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 
24N NORTHWARD. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A 
1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 23N87W AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. 
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN A RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 150 NM AWAY 
FROM THE 23N87W CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND 
FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING 
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 350 MB TO 500 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES SOUTHWARD. A MIDDLE 
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 17N66W 20N60W 26N57W. 

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO 
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SURROUNDS 
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE 32N67W TO 17N69W TROUGH.  

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD THE CURRENT 
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS 
HISPANIOLA. A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED INVERTED TROUGH 
EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE TO A POSITION THAT IS DIRECTLY ON TOP OF 
HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS 
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW 
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN 
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 6 HOURS INTO 
THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL 30 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SECOND DAY. THE GFS 
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY 
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FIRST 24-
HOUR PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA 
DURING THE REST OF THE FIRST DAY OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. 
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR DAY TWO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 
25N67W 19N68W...ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC AND THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 17N69W IN THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN 
CLUSTERS...WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 30N77W...29N71W... 
26N75W...24N77W...AND 24N80W.  

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 37N24W TO 
32N26W 27N34W AND 24N42W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT 
PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 29N40W AND 28N50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM 
TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 28N40W 
26N50W AND 27N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 28N32W...TO A 1025 MB 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N40W...27N67W AND TO THE 
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N76W TO 
LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 30-Jun-2015 06:00:09 UTC