Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 282348

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
748 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC.


A middle to upper level shortwave trough is observed on water 
vapor imagery supporting a 1004 mb low centered near 28N64W. Near-gale
to gale-force winds are occurring in the northern semicircle of 
the low within 150 nm of the center. The low is forecast to move 
northeast during the next 48 hours with near-gale to gale-force 
winds rotating around its center. By Thursday evening...the low 
will have moved north of the discussion area. Please see the 
latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to 
00N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 00N20W to
00N35W. A surface trough extend west of the ITCZ from 09N40W to
00N41W. Isolated moderate convection prevails within 50 nm on
either side of the Monsoon Trough mainly east of 16W.



Mid to upper-level ridging prevails over the basin with water 
vapor imagery indicating relatively dry and stable air. A surface
ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1018 mb near 29N82W.  
A broad low pressure area anchored over northern Mexico and 
southern Texas extends across the west Gulf waters mainly west of 
93W. This synoptic pattern provides gentle to moderate return 
flow east of 90W and moderate to fresh southeast flow west of 
90W. Winds in the western basin will increase tonight to fresh to 
strong ahead of the next cold front to emerge the coast of Texas 
Thursday morning. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the 
vicinity of the front as it moves southeast across the Gulf 
through Saturday.


West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Caribbean basin
with mostly dry and stable conditions noted on water vapor 
imagery. Over the eastern portion of the basin, abundant moisture
is being advected from the tropical Atlantic. This moisture 
supports shallow convection across the northeast Caribbean
affecting Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage. With the Special 
Features' low pressure area located north of Puerto Rico, the 
pressure gradient remains fairly weak and results in gentle to 
moderate trades across the whole basin. These conditions are 
expected to persist through the next 24-48 hours with the 
exception of occasional fresh E-SE winds across the Gulf of 
Honduras. Little change is expected through the remainder of the 


Dry and stable air aloft prevails within southwesterly flow
aloft. Low-level moisture convergence combined with orographic
lifting is enhancing a few showers over the island. This activity
will dissipate overnight. As the Special Features' low pressure 
continues moving northeast away from the island during the next 
24 hours, drier weather will prevail.


The primary focus for the west Atlantic is the Special Features 
low pressure area centered on a 1004 mb low near 28N64W. A warm 
front extends northeast from the low to 31N57W to 29N46W. A
weakening stationary front connects to the warm front from 29N46W
to 31N28W. Scattered showers are observed in the vicinity of the
warm front mainly north of 30N between 48W-62W. The west Atlantic
is under the influence of a surface ridge associated with a 1019 
mb high centered near 32N75W. The remainder of the central and 
eastern Atlantic is also under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1024 mb high near 35N50W.

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 28-Mar-2017 23:48:35 UTC