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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

000
AXNT20 KNHC 301121
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 03N21W TO 01N26W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 01N38W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 
00N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-02N BETWEEN 
25N-39W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE EASTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF 
WATERS KEEPING THE BASIN WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT. A PAIR OF SURFACE 
HIGHS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE 
FIRST ONE IS A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N95W. TO THE E...A 
1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N84W. A SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG 
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINE. EXPECT FOR THIS FRONT TO 
CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS THEN ITS WESTERN PORTION WILL STALL ACROSS THE NW GULF 
WHILE THE EASTERN PORTION WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND E GULF WATERS. THE SURFACE HIGHS WILL 
DISSIPATE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS NEAR 
62W EXTENDS SW SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BEGINS AS A COLD 
FRONT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY 
FRONT ACROSS HISPANIOLA...EXTENDING FROM 20N70W TO 17N74W. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING 
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND 
ADJACENT WATERS. A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS AND S 
OF PUERTO RICO ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE E 
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 17N80W TO 13N82W. CLOUDINESS 
AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. FAIR 
WEATHER IS NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS A DEEP 
LAYER DRY AIRMASS DOMINATES. SLIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ARE 
DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN MAINLY E 
OF 80W WHILE GENTLE NE FLOW IS W OF 80W. OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO WEAKEN OVER 
HISPANIOLA UNTIL IT DISSIPATES. 

...HISPANIOLA... 

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SW 
ATLANTIC WITH ITS TAIL EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA AS A 
STATIONARY FRONT. WITH THIS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING 
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT 
WATERS. EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC BEHIND A 
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE AREA 
OF DISCUSSION ENTERING THE SW ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 31N55W TO 
21N67W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N55W TO 19N67W WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 21N BETWEEN 53W-63W. TO THE E 
...THE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED AS A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N37W TO 24N39W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 34W-39W. A BROAD 1036 
MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N30W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E 
ATLANTIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO 
BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN. THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 38W WILL 
WEAKEN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES NE WHILE WEAKENING ALSO. THE 
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE 
W ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION. AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED TO NEAR 
GALE FORCE IS EXPECTED IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
MAINLY ALONG 30N BETWEEN 65W-75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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ERA