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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

000
AXNT20 KNHC 220548
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

AS OF 0300 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 
45.1W OR ABOUT 850 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 45W-47W. SEE THE LATEST NHC 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
18N36W TO 11N36W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE DEPICTED WELL ON 
THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A DRY SAHARAN AIR 
LAYER IS N OF 15N HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. THE WAVE EXTENDS 
FROM 19N47W TO 13N47W MOVING W AT 20 KT. AN ASCAT PASS SHOWS 
THIS WAVE IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND WILL BE DROPPED ON THE NEXT 
BULLETIN. NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WITH THE WAVE. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 19N77W TO 10N77W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT DURING THE LAST 24 
HOURS. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS STRONG DEEP LAYER 
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE 
INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 
8N23W TO 11N34W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 11N34W TO 11N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF T.D. TWO FROM 
10N47W TO 10N55W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 8N60W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 14W-
19W...AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 23W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 
27N86W. 5 -10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THE 
HIGH. 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER FLORIDA...THE STRAITS 
OF FLORIDA...AND CUBA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS OVER THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 
91W-93W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
W GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S 
ALABAMA NEAR 32N88W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS 
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF. EXPECT 
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                            

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 10-25 
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N BETWEEN 77W-
86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER EL SALVADOR 
AND W HONDURAS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 87W-91W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND N COLOMBIA. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO 
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 
IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE 
CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO 
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS 
AND CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE 
ATLANTIC. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                

SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW 
OVER JAMAICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN 24 
HOURS. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA DURING AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING HEATING. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE 
CENTRAL AND N BAHAMAS W OF 76W DUE TO SURFACE CONFLUENCE AND 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N40W. PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N64 WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 
25N51W ALSO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA