000
AXNT20 KNHC 121007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jul 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean along 
23W-24W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10 kt. A 1013 mb low 
is analyzed along the tropical wave near 12.5N23W. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed from 06N to 14N and between 23W 
and 30W.

Another tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean 
along 39W, south of 18N, moving west around 5-10 kt. A 1013 mb low 
is analyzed along the tropical wave near 10N38.5W. Scattered 
moderate convection is present from 04N to 11.5N and between 34W 
and 43W.

A tropical wave is analyzed in the central Caribbean and has been
repositioned along 72W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. 
No significant convection is noted over the water, but the wave is
enhancing the showers and thunderstorms over Venezuela.

A tropical wave is analyzed in the western Caribbean along 83W, 
south of 18N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted in the SW Caribbean south of
11.5N and west of 79W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 10.5N30W 
to 10N38W to 06N46W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N46W to the coast
of French Guiana near 05.5N54W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection, mostly associated with tropical waves, is noted from 
03N to 11.5N between 24W and 46W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A few clusters of scattered moderate convection have shifted NW
and away from the Straits of Florida and into the SE Gulf waters 
east of 88W. Similar moderate convection is noted across the SE
Texas and south Louisiana coastal waters north of 27.5N. A few
clusters of strong convection are noted across the western Bay of
Campeche. The rest of the basin is under fair skies. Broad and  
weak high pressure of 1020 mb extends across the NE Gulf and
central Florida this morning, and supports moderate to locally 
fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas to 5 ft south of a line from 
southern Florida to SW Louisiana. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds
and slight seas are prevalent under the ridge.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will persist across the basin 
through Tue. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse to strong along the 
Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough develops 
inland daily and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at 
night. A surface trough is expected to develop across Florida on 
Mon and drift westward across the eastern Gulf Tue through Wed, 
accompanied by active weather. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...
 
A 1023 mb Bermuda high extends a broad ridge southwestward into
central Florida this morning. The associated pressure gradient to
the south is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds and 
moderate to rough seas across much of the central and eastern 
Caribbean. The strongest winds are found off northern Colombia 
based on recent satellite scatterometer data. Seas in this area 
are peaking near 10 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds 
and moderate seas are evident west of 80W and south of 20N. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent.
Widely scattered moderate convection is noted north of the
tropical wave along 83W, between 83W and 80W. Elsewhere, no 
significant convection is seen on satellite imagery.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda high 
and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing fresh to 
strong trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean 
through the forecast period. Fresh E winds are expected across the
Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, into early next week, pulsing 
to locally strong Sun night and Mon night. Moderate to fresh winds
and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean through 
the weekend while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate 
seas will prevail NW portions.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

An expansive subtropical ridge continues to dominate the weather
pattern across the basin, extending a ridge E to W along about 30N
between 30W and 60W, then southwestward into central Florida.
Scattered moderate popcorn-type convection is occurring about an
elongated upper-level low, from 24N to 31N between 55W and 71W. A
line of scattered moderate isolated strong convection is moving
southeastward away from the Georgia and Carolina coasts and 
toward the outer coastal waters of NE Florida. Otherwise, 
generally fair weather prevails across the basin west of the Cabo 
Verdes. At the surface, moderate to fresh E-SE trade winds are 
found between the Bahamas and Cuba and fresh winds off the coast 
of northern Hispaniola, as confirmed by recent satellite scatterometer
data. Seas to 7 ft are noted off northern Hispaniola. Moderate to
locally fresh trade winds prevail across the tropical Atlantic 
south of 24N east of the Lesser Antilles, with seas generally 4 to
7 ft. Meanwhile, the tight pressure gradient between the 
aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa result in 
fresh to near gale NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas 
north of 20N and east of 25W. North of 24N and west of 30W, 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High extends a ridge 
west-southwestward into central Florida this morning. The ridge 
will shift eastward and weaken Sat night through Mon, then 
reorganize and strengthen modestly along 60W Tue and Wed. The 
associated pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate 
winds, except for fresh to locally strong E to SE winds off the 
northern coast of Hispaniola through Sat. Active thunderstorms are
expected across the NW zones through Tue as an upper level trough
shifts slowly offshore of the SE U.S. coast. 

$$
Stripling