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Tropical Storm POLO Public Advisory (Text)


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000
WTPZ32 KNHC 182037
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS A WEAKER POLO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 105.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF
THE TRACK COULD REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO
THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TODAY...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 15 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF
GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...COLIMA AND JALISCO STATES IN MEXICO.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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Page last modified: Thursday, 18-Sep-2014 20:38:04 UTC