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Tropical Storm KEVIN Forecast Advisory (Text)


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000
WTPZ24 KNHC 030845
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
0900 UTC THU SEP 03 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 115.3W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 115.3W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 115.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.4N 115.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.6N 115.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.6N 115.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.3N 115.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 117.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 22.1N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 115.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



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Page last modified: Thursday, 03-Sep-2015 08:45:51 UTC