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Tropical Storm Pilar Forecast Advisory (Text)


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TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182017
0900 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO EL
ROBLITO... INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 
THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 105.6W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 105.6W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 105.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.5N 105.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.2N 105.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.0N 105.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE   0SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 22.0N 106.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 24.0N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 105.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


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Page last modified: Sunday, 24-Sep-2017 08:55:53 UTC