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Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Advisory (Text)


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000
WTPZ22 KNHC 190850
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0900 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.1W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.1W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 106.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.6N 107.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.4N 108.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.0N 110.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.7N 111.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 107.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




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Page last modified: Friday, 19-Sep-2014 08:50:30 UTC