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Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Advisory (Text)


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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 010232
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0300 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.5N 101.8W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.5N 101.8W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.5N 101.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z  9.5N 103.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 10.0N 105.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.1N 107.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.6N 109.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.5N 110.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.1N 108.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 24.3N 105.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.5N 101.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




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Page last modified: Saturday, 01-Nov-2014 02:32:27 UTC