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Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory (Text)


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HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
0300 UTC WED SEP 20 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA... AND VIEQUES
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* GUADELOUPE
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... 
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MARIA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  64.7W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  909 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  45SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  64.7W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  64.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N  65.8W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.9N  67.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.9N  68.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.9N  69.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.3N  71.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 26.2N  72.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N  72.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N  64.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 20-Sep-2017 02:44:11 UTC