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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory (Text)


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HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  56
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017
0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WATCH HILL TO HULL
* BLOCK ISLAND
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD
* NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON
* NEW HAVEN TO WATCH HILL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOSE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N  71.3W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
50 KT.......120NE  70SE  90SW 130NW.
34 KT.......270NE 180SE 140SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N  71.3W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N  71.4W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.1N  71.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  25SE   0SW  40NW.
50 KT...110NE  80SE  90SW 130NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 38.5N  70.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  90SW 100NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE 180SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.6N  68.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 40.0N  67.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.3N  66.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 140SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 38.7N  66.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 38.5N  67.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N  71.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 19-Sep-2017 08:38:17 UTC