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Hurricane ODILE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150303
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

CORRECTED STATUS FROM EXTRATROPICAL TO REMNANT LOW AT 120 HOURS

Geostationary and microwave imagery indicate that the inner eyewall
of the hurricane has dissipated, leaving only an outer eyewall at a
radius of about 25 n mi.  This broadening of the inner-core wind
field normally corresponds to some weakening, but, given the
uncertainties, the current intensity is held at 110 kt.  This is
somewhat lower than the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.
Since the center will be moving over or at least very near land
shortly, it is unlikely that the eyewall will have time to contract
and complete the eyewall replacement cycle.  Weakening is expected
to commence by early Monday.  The amount of weakening over the next
several days depends on how much the circulation interacts with the
Baja California Peninsula.  On the latest NHC forecast track, the
center is expected to remain over land for much of the period.
Therefore, the official intensity forecast is significantly lower
than the previous one.

The motion has been to the right and somewhat faster than earlier
today.  Therefore the official track forecast has been adjusted
accordingly.  This is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF
solutions.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as
strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of
Odile.  In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern
Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's
circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United
States by early next week.   This could result in heavy rains and
life-threatening flash flooding in those areas.  Please see
information from your local weather office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 22.6N 109.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 24.0N 110.9W   95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
 24H  16/0000Z 25.4N 112.0W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
 36H  16/1200Z 26.7N 113.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 48H  17/0000Z 27.7N 113.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 72H  18/0000Z 28.7N 114.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 96H  19/0000Z 29.8N 113.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 30.5N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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Page last modified: Monday, 15-Sep-2014 03:04:04 UTC