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Remnants of ODILE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 172024
TCDEP5

REMNANTS OF ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

Satellite and surface observations indicate that the low-level
circulation of Odile is becoming elongated and losing definition
over extreme northwestern mainland Mexico, with a number of small
cloud swirls rotating within a broad cyclonic envelope. In addition,
the remaining deep convection is becoming increasingly displaced
from the decaying surface center.  Based on these observations,
Odile is no longer considered a tropical cyclone and this will be
the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center.  Because
the remnants of Odile continue to represent a significant rainfall
threat, the NOAA Weather Prediction Center will issue public
advisories while that threat exists, beginning at 8 p.m. PDT under
AWIPS header TCPEP5 and WMO header WTPZ35 KWNH.

The initial motion estimate is now 045/06 kt.  The remnants of
Odile should continue to move toward the northeast or east-northeast
across extreme northwestern Mexico tonight, and across southeastern
Arizona on Thursday ahead of an eastward-moving mid-latitude trough
currently approaching western Baja California.

Heavy rainfall and flooding associated with the remnants of Odile
will continue to be a significant threat across northwestern Mexico
and the southwestern United States during the next couple of days.
These heavy rains will likely cause flooding and mudslides,
especially in mountainous areas. For future details, please see
information from your local weather office and the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 31.1N 112.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS INLAND
 12H  18/0600Z 31.9N 111.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...REMNANTS INLAND
 24H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 17-Sep-2014 20:25:02 UTC