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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 160843
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Odile continues to have a well-organized appearance on satellite
imagery with bursts of deep convection continuing near the center.
A couple of ASCAT passes indicated a large area of 45-kt winds
over the Gulf of California just off the east-central coast of
the Baja peninsula.  Based on these data and the possibility of
stronger winds along the immediate coast of the Baja peninsula,
the initial intensity is set at 55 kt.  Odile should gradually
weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours while the circulation
continues to interact with land.  Odile is forecast to become a
tropical depression in a day or so, and degenerate to a remnant low
within 48 hours.  The new forecast now calls for dissipation within
3 days.

Odile is moving north-northwestward at about 9 kt.  The cyclone
should turn toward the north, then northeast during the next day
or so as it moves between a mid-level ridge to its east and a
mid-level trough near southern California.  The latest NHC track
is again a little faster than the previous advisory and is close to
a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's
circulation over the next few days.  This, along with the slow
motion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally
heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern
United States.  Please see information from your local weather
office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 27.4N 112.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 12H  16/1800Z 28.5N 113.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  17/0600Z 29.4N 113.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...GULF OF CALIFORNIA
 36H  17/1800Z 30.4N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  18/0600Z 31.5N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 16-Sep-2014 08:43:42 UTC