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Post-Tropical Cyclone DOLORES Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 190233
TCDEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015

Dolores has been without organized deep convection for 12 hours, and
the center is now more than 150 miles away from the remaining
shallow to moderate convection.  Based on the lack of convective
organization, Dolores is now a post-tropical remnant low and this
will be the last NHC advisory.  With even colder waters ahead,
the remnant low should gradually spin down and dissipate in 2 or 3
days offshore of southern California.

The initial motion is 335/14, as the cyclone has accelerated since
the previous advisory.  Dolores should continue moving north-
northwestward around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge
and then turn northward and decelerate prior to dissipation.  The
new NHC track forecast is along but faster than the previous one and
is close to the latest ECMWF and GFS solutions.

Moisture associated with Dolores is spreading over the southwestern
United States and will increase the possibility of heavy rains and
flash flooding during the next few days over portions of Arizona,
southern California, southern Nevada, and southwestern Utah.  Please
refer to statements from your local National Weather Service office
at www.weather.gov for more information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 25.6N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  19/1200Z 27.5N 119.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  20/0000Z 30.2N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/1200Z 32.1N 120.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/0000Z 33.3N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan


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Page last modified: Sunday, 19-Jul-2015 02:33:37 UTC