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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 160258
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 55 KT

The tropical cyclone continues to have a fairly well-organized
appearance on satellite imagery, but deep convection has been
thinning out.  Applying a typical inland decay rate, the current
intensity is set at a rather uncertain 55 kt.  Continued weakening
is forecast, and the system is likely to fall below tropical storm
strength in a day or so.  The official wind speed forecast is
similar to the latest decay-SHIPS guidance and to the intensity
model consensus, and now shows Odile becoming a remnant low by 72
hours.

Odile's heading has shifted a little to the right, and the
initial motion estimate is 340/11 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the
east of the cyclone should cause a turn toward the north in a day or
so, and a low- to mid-level trough near southern California is
likely to turn Odile or its remnant low north-northeastward in 2-3
days.  The official track forecast is a little faster than the
previous one and is close to the latest dynamical model consensus
forecast, TVCE.

Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's
circulation over the next few days.  This, along with the slow
motion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally
heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern
United States.  Please see information from your local weather
office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 26.6N 112.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 27.8N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  17/0000Z 28.8N 113.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  17/1200Z 29.7N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  18/0000Z 30.6N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  19/0000Z 32.0N 111.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 16-Sep-2014 02:58:38 UTC