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Hurricane ODILE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150854
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

Satellite data showed that Odile made landfall near Cabo San Lucas
around 0445 UTC.  The estimated intensity of 110 kt at landfall
ties Odile with Olivia (1967) as the strongest hurricane to make
landfall in the satellite era in the state of Baja California Sur.
Since landfall, the eye of Odile has filled in conventional
satellite imagery, but the inner-core convection remains strong and
very symmetric.  The initial wind speed has been reduced to 100 kt
for this advisory. The hurricane should steadily weaken during
the next few days while the circulation and inner-core continue to
interact with the Baja California peninsula.  The latest NHC
forecast is close to the intensity consensus, and is lower than
the previous NHC advisory.

Odile is moving north-northwestward at 14 kt.  The cyclone is
forecast to move northwestward to north-northwestward around the
western portion of a mid-level ridge over the southern United
States during the next couple of days.  The forward speed of Odile
should slow down as the cyclone weakens and becomes a more shallow
system.  In a few days, the low-level circulation is forecast to
turn northward, then northeastward, and dissipate over northern
Mexico or the northern portion of the Gulf of California in 4 to 5
days. The NHC track forecast lies between the latest GFS and
ECMWF models.

Since strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the
center of Odile, users should not focus on the exact forecast track.
Moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the
Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation
northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United States
during the next several days.  This could result in heavy rains and
life-threatening flash flooding in those areas.  Please see
information from your local weather office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 23.7N 110.4W  100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
 12H  15/1800Z 25.1N 111.7W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
 24H  16/0600Z 26.7N 112.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 36H  16/1800Z 28.0N 113.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 48H  17/0600Z 29.0N 114.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 72H  18/0600Z 30.0N 113.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  19/0600Z 30.7N 113.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown



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Page last modified: Monday, 15-Sep-2014 08:54:45 UTC