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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 170238
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Satellite images show that Odile is maintaining its organization for
now, although most of the deepest convection is confined to the
northeastern quadrant of the circulation.  Since the center of
circulation appears to be over the waters of the Gulf of California,
it is assumed that the winds have not decreased and the intensity
estimate remains 45 kt.  No significant change in strength is
anticipated until the center crosses the coast of northwestern
mainland Mexico on Wednesday.  After that occurs, weakening should
be rapid and the system will likely degenerate into a weak remnant
low in 24-36 hours, and lose its identity by 48 hours.  The official
wind speed forecast is similar to the previous one.

Based on geostationary and microwave imagery, the motion continues
to be northward or about 360/6 kt.  A mid-level ridge extending from
southern Texas westward over Mexico should cause a gradual turn
toward the north-northeast over the next day or so.  The official
track forecast is very similar to that from the previous advisory,
and is also very close to the latest dynamical model consensus,
TVCE.

Moisture is being advected northward by Odile's circulation, and the
moisture associated with Odile or its remnant low will likely be
crossing the United States/Mexico border within 24 hours.  This,
along with the slow motion of the system, will likely result in
locally heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the
southwestern United States.  Please see information from your local
weather office for more details.

In addition, a significant storm surge is possible along the
northern Gulf of California from Puerto Penasco westward to San
Felipe, Mexico, due to a long fetch of southeasterly winds forcing
trapped water into the concave coastal regions of the northern Gulf
of California.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 29.7N 113.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 30.4N 113.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 31.5N 112.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/1200Z 32.8N 111.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 17-Sep-2014 02:38:48 UTC