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Post-Tropical Cyclone NEWTON Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 072034
TCDEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016
300 PM MDT WED SEP 07 2016

Although moderate rainfall is still occurring over portions of
southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, infrared satellite
imagery indicates that Newton is no longer producing organized deep
convection.  In addition, there have been no surface reports of
sustained tropical-storm-force winds, and NWS WSR-88D radar data
from Tucson, Arizona, are only showing maximum winds of about 35 kt
at an elevation of 4000 feet.  Therefore, Newton is being declared a
post-tropical remnant low with maximum winds of 30 kt.  Based on the
data available to us at this time, we do not think that Newton moved
into southern Arizona as a tropical cyclone.

There have been some adjustments to the center position based on
visible imagery, but the initial motion still appears to be 015/16
kt.  The remnant low, or the remnants of Newton, are expected to
turn northeastward during the next 12 hours before dissipation.
Wind speeds will continue to decrease the rest of today and tonight,
and the low-level circulation is likely to open up near the
Arizona/New Mexico border by tomorrow morning.

Heavy rainfall, with the potential for flash flooding, will continue
over portions of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico
through tonight.  Consult statements from your local National
Weather Service office for possible flash flood warnings.  The
Weather Prediction Center will continue to issue advisories on
Newton or its remnants as long as it poses a heavy rainfall and
flash flooding threat to the southwestern United States.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 31.6N 111.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  08/0600Z 32.9N 109.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 07-Sep-2016 20:34:44 UTC