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Tropical Depression IVETTE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 080247
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 07 2016

The deep convection that was near the center of Ivette earlier in
the day has been sheared away, with the closest area of
thunderstorms about 80 n mi northeast of the center.  This is
the result of 20-25 kt of southwesterly shear.  A pair of ASCAT
passes from several hours ago showed maximum winds near 35 kt in
the northern portion of the circulation.  Assuming some spin down
since that time, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt, making
Ivette a tropical depression.  This intensity estimate is also in
agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.
Although some deep convection could return near the center,
continued strong southwesterly shear and dry air should limit the
organization of this activity and cause weakening. Ivette is
expected to degenerate to a remnant low on Monday, and dissipate to
the east of the Hawaiian Islands in 2 to 3 days.

The shallow cyclone has turned westward in the low-level flow.  A
general westward motion at about 10 kt is expected until the
cyclone dissipates.  The NHC official track forecast lies on the
southern edge of the guidance, and is adjusted to the south of the
previous prediction.

The next advisory on Ivette will be issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 17.2N 139.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 17.6N 141.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 17.8N 142.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  09/1200Z 17.7N 144.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/0000Z 17.4N 147.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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Page last modified: Monday, 08-Aug-2016 02:47:13 UTC