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Post-Tropical Cyclone OLAF Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 271435
TCDEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015

Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that the system is devoid
of deep convection, so Olaf is no longer a tropical cyclone and
advisories are being discontinued at this time.  Data from a recent
scatterometer overpass showed that the low-level circulation
is becoming elongated, but the system is still producing winds to
gale force.  With the lack of convection or strong baroclinic
forcing, the cyclone is likely to gradually spin down and dissipate
in a few days.

The post-tropical cyclone has been moving east-northeastward, or
060/9 kt.  Global models show a low-level ridge building to the
north of the system over the next couple of days.  This should
cause a turn toward the southwest and west-southwest by tomorrow.
The official forecast also shows this turn, although it is not
quite as fast as the dynamical model consensus.

For additional information on Olaf, please see High SeasForecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 26.7N 135.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  28/0000Z 26.9N 134.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  28/1200Z 26.2N 134.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/0000Z 25.4N 136.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/1200Z 25.0N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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Page last modified: Thursday, 12-Nov-2015 17:48:16 UTC