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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 012041
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
300 PM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Conventional satellite imagery shows that the system has not become
better organized and a recent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicates
that the cyclone remains at depression strength.  Therefore, the
initial intensity remains at 30 kt.  The environment is expected to
be only marginally conducive for some intensification during the
next couple of days.  An amplifying mid- to upper-level trough
situated to the northwest of the depression is forecast to produce
modest southwesterly shear during the next couple of days.  Beyond
the 48 hour period, the depression will be moving into a
significantly more stable and drier air mass which should induce a
more rapid decay of the cyclone.  The official intensity forecast is
close to the IVCN intensity consensus and the Florida State
Superensemble and is essentially an update from the previous
advisory.

The initial motion is northwestward or, 320/8 kt. The cyclone is
expected to gradually move between a mid-level high pressure system
over Mexico and the aforementioned deep-layer trough west of the
Baja California peninsula during the next 2-3 days.  Beyond the 72
hour period, the depression is expected to degenerate into a
shallow, weak, system and is likely to meander in very weak
low-level steering currents southwest of the Baja California
peninsula until dissipation.  The NHC forecast is a little bit
faster than the previous advisory and follows the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF)
consensus closely.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 13.7N 114.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 15.1N 114.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 16.8N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 18.5N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 20.1N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 22.4N 114.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 23.4N 113.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1800Z 24.0N 113.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 01-Sep-2015 20:41:15 UTC