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Tropical Storm ULIKA Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 290254
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016
800 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016

Southwesterly shear continues to take a toll on Ulika.  The cloud
pattern of the tropical cyclone is elongated from west-southwest to
east-northeast, with only bursts of convection present.  The
initial wind speed is conservatively reduced to 45 kt, a blend of
the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  A large mid/upper-level
trough over the central Pacific is forecast to remain nearly
stationary, which should cause a further increase in shear.  Dry air
aloft should also help choke off the convection, and Ulika is
forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 36 hours.  The
intensity forecast is near an average of the previous interpolated
official forecast and the intensity consensus.  The intensity
forecast is a bit higher than the previous one at long range due to
the strong trade wind environment the cyclone is forecast to be
embedded within.

Ulika is turning gradually to the left, and the initial motion is
now estimated to be 360/6.  The small tropical cyclone should
continue to rotate counter-clockwise around a mid-level trough to
its west until it becomes a shallow cyclone in about 24 to 36
hours. Thereafter, it is forecast to move westward in the low-level
flow until dissipation.  Most of the model guidance was a bit faster
and farther to the north, so the NHC track prediction is adjusted in
that direction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 15.8N 138.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 16.5N 139.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 17.3N 139.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 17.8N 141.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/0000Z 18.0N 142.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  02/0000Z 18.0N 146.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


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Page last modified: Thursday, 29-Sep-2016 02:54:39 UTC