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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 262033
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142016
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Visible satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure in
the western part of the eastern North Pacific basin has developed a
well-defined center and has sufficient convective organization to be
considered a tropical cyclone.  The convective pattern displays a
CDO feature near and to the west of the estimated center location
due to some east-northeasterly shear, and the initial intensity is
set to 30 kt based on the latest SAB Dvorak estimate.  The cyclone
will be moving over SSTs above 27C and in a low-to-moderate easterly
shear environment for the next 2 to 3 days.  This should allow for
steady intensification, and the NHC forecast shows the cyclone
becoming a hurricane in about 3 days.  Later in the forecast period
the SSTs cool and the mid-level atmosphere dries out, which should
result in some weakening.  The official intensity forecast is close
to or a little below the IVCN consensus through the period.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 295/10 given the
recent formation of the center.  The depression is currently
situated on the southwestern flank of a subtropical ridge centered
near 125W.  A west-northwestward motion is expected during the first
couple of days of the forecast period as the cyclone moves around
the edge of the ridge.  Late in the period a new ridge builds north
of the Hawaiian Islands, which should result in a westward motion at
days 3 through 5.  The track model guidance is in generally good
agreement on this scenario, however there is some spread, with the
GFS slower and farther south by day 5, while the ECMWF is faster and
farther north.  The NHC forecast is near the center of the guidance
envelope and is a little south of the TVCN consensus and is north of
a blend of the GFS and ECMWF.

It is too early to determine what, if any, impacts this cyclone
could have on the Hawaiian Islands near the end of the forecast
period.  It is important to remind users that the average 5-day
track forecast error for eastern Pacific tropical cyclones is about
170 miles.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 13.3N 136.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 14.2N 137.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 15.2N 138.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 15.8N 140.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 16.6N 141.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 18.0N 144.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 19.0N 148.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  31/1800Z 19.0N 152.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan



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Page last modified: Friday, 26-Aug-2016 20:34:08 UTC