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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 030235
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
800 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2015

Bursts of convection continue to form near and north of the center
of the depression.  Southerly shear, however, continues to prevent
much organization, with the thunderstorms fading in the past hour.
The satellite classifications are the same as 6 hours ago, so the
initial intensity remains 30 kt.  I suspect this is on the
conservative side given the curvature of the low clouds and the
latest microwave images, but would prefer to wait until there is
more concrete data to support an upgrade.  The cyclone has about a
day to intensify before SSTs become more marginal and drier air
infiltrates the circulation.  Remnant low status is anticipated
by day 3 due to more hostile environmental conditions.  The NHC
wind speed forecast is similar to the previous advisory, just a bit
higher than the intensity consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be 360/6 kt.  The global models
are in good agreement on the depression moving between a mid-level
high over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough west of
the Baja California peninsula during the next few days.  The
biggest forecast challenge is predicting exactly when the cyclone
becomes a more shallow system and takes a leftward turn in response
to the low-level flow.  In general, the model guidance has trended a
bit faster with the westward turn, and the latest NHC forecast is
shifted in that direction, though still lies north of the model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 17.0N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 18.0N 115.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 19.2N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 20.3N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 21.2N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 22.3N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


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Page last modified: Thursday, 03-Sep-2015 02:35:34 UTC