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Tropical Storm NORBERT Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 022050
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014

Satellite images suggest that Norbert has become a little better
organized during the day since the center is no longer partially
exposed and banding features have become somewhat better defined.
Intensity estimates, however, are about the same as 6 hours ago, so
the wind speed is kept at 35 kt.  Except for moderate northeasterly
shear, environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening
for the next couple of days.  Intensity guidance is a bit higher
than 6 hours ago, with the HWRF now calling for Norbert to become a
hurricane.  The new NHC forecast will follow the trend of the
guidance and shows a higher peak intensity than the last one,
between the intensity consensus and the Florida State Superensemble.

Norbert has turned northward and has slowed, with an initial motion
of about 360/8. The leftward turn should continue overnight, with a
west-northwestward track expected in about 24 hours as Norbert comes
under the influence of a mid-level high over Mexico. This high
weakens somewhat in a couple of days, which could then force Norbert
on a more northwestward track.  While the bulk of the guidance still
shows the center of Norbert passing south of the Baja California
peninsula, there has been a northward trend noted in much of the
guidance.  The NHC forecast is adjusted to the north and now lies
north of the model consensus, but is still south of the latest ECMWF
forecast.

The new NHC track forecast suggests an increasing chance of
tropical-storm-force winds in southern Baja California Sur, and a
tropical storm watch has been issued for the extreme southern part
of the state.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 18.5N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 19.4N 107.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 20.5N 109.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 21.1N 110.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 22.6N 112.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 23.6N 114.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 24.0N 116.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 02-Sep-2014 20:50:48 UTC