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Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 232037
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017
400 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Hilary continues to become better organized on the latest satellite
images, with a small central core and a hint of an eye dimple trying
to form in the visible channel.  A blend of satellite estimates
supported around 45 kt at 18Z, but since the satellite presentation
has continued to improve, the advisory wind speed is set to 50 kt.

The storm is forecast to be within a low shear, warm water, and high
moisture environment for at least the next couple of days.   The
SHIPS guidance responds to these conditions by showing a 55-percent
chance of a 55-kt increase in winds during the next 48 hours.  The
favorable conditions above, including the small inner core, strongly
points to Hilary rapidly intensifying during that time.  Thus, the
latest NHC forecast is increased from the previous one, showing
rapid intensification, and ends up above the model consensus, but
not as high as the HFIP corrected consensus or HWRF models.  Late in
the period, an increase in northerly shear, possibly enhanced by
outflow from TS Irwin, along with more marginal SSTs should cause
some weakening late in the period.

Hilary is moving slower now toward the west-northwest at about 8 kt.
A ridge over Mexico should steer Hilary in that general direction
for the next several days, with some increase in speed by 48 hours
as the ridge strengthens slightly.  Late in the period, there is a
possibility of some binary interaction with Irwin, which adds some
uncertainty to the track forecast.  While some of the model guidance
has jumped around during the past 6 hours, the consensus aids are
very close to the previous NHC forecast, so no significant change
has been made to the latest NHC prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 13.2N 102.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 13.6N 103.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 14.3N 105.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 15.0N 106.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 15.8N 108.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 17.0N 112.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 19.0N 120.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


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Page last modified: Sunday, 23-Jul-2017 20:37:31 UTC