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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 292033
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
200 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

Deep convection associated with the depression is becoming less
organized and now consists of a nearly linear band through the
eastern and southeastern part of the circulation.  The initial
intensity remains 30 kt based on Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and
SAB.  North-northwesterly vertical shear of 10-15 kt is expected to
diminish during the next 24 hours, but the circulation is moving
into a drier air mass and over lower oceanic heat content values.
Degeneration into a trough is expected by 36 hours based on the
latest global model guidance.  Although not explicitly indicated in
the forecast, the depression could become a remnant low before
dissipation occurs if it can't maintain organized deep convection.

The depression appeared to accelerate suddenly earlier today but has
leveled out at a motion of 265/14 kt.  A low-level ridge to the
north should keep the cyclone moving at this motion until
dissipation, and the NHC track forecast follows the GFS-ECMWF
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 16.6N 135.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 16.5N 137.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 16.3N 140.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 29-Jul-2015 20:33:38 UTC