Tropical Storm Pilar Forecast Discussion (Text)

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WTPZ43 KNHC 250231

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182017
900 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Satellite images suggest that Pilar is maintaining its strength
this evening.  The center of the system is difficult to locate, but
extrapolation of earlier microwave data and current geostationary
images suggest that it is located just to the north of Las Islas
Marias.  The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, though some
of the latest satellite intensity estimates suggest that this could
be a little conservative.

Pilar is very close to the coast, and the models either show the
tropical cyclone moving inland or staying just off the coast of
western Mexico.  This land interaction combined with an increase in
south-southwesterly shear should cause the storm to weaken to a
tropical depression on Monday, and dissipate in a couple of days or
less.  It should be noted that if Pilar does move inland, it could
dissipate sooner than shown here.

A long term motion has been northward at 8 kt.  A slower north to
north-northwest motion in the low- to mid-level flow is expected
until the system dissipates.  This track forecast lies closest to
the ECMWF and UKMET models.

The main hazard associated with Pilar is the potential for heavy
rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, over the states of Nayarit and the southern portion of
Sinaloa during the next day or two.


INIT  25/0300Z 21.8N 106.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 22.6N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 23.4N 106.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 24.0N 107.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Cangialosi

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Page last modified: Monday, 25-Sep-2017 02:32:31 UTC