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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 280838
TCDEP3

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Satellite images indicate that Jimena is continuing to rapidly
intensify.  The overall cold cloud canopy has expanded, with well-
defined banding features around the central dense overcast, which
has occasionally showed hints of an eye.  The initial intensity is
raised to 70 kt, a blend of the 65 kt subjective Dvorak estimates
and a 77 kt objective value from the UW-CIMSS ADT.

The initial motion estimate remains 270/12 kt.  Jimena is expected
to move westward along the southern periphery of the subtropical
ridge for the next 24-36 hours.  After that time a turn toward the
west-northwest is expected, with some decrease in forward speed
likely late in the forecast due to a mid-latitude trough weakening
the ridge.  The track guidance continues to be in remarkable
agreement on the forecast for the next several days, with the NHC
model guidance tightly packed near the 0300 UTC forecast track, so
the new forecast is very close to the previous one.

Environmental conditions are quite favorable for further
strengthening, with very warm water, high mid-level moisture and
low shear forecast for at least the next 48 hours. In response to
these conditions, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index is
forecasting a 61 percent chance of a 30 kt increase during the next
24 hours. Thus, the official NHC prediction will continue to
explicitly indicate rapid intensification for the first day of the
forecast.  Most of the guidance shows the peak intensity around 48
hours, so the NHC forecast will as well, although it remains below
some of the guidance.  Beyond that time, slightly cooler SSTs are
expected, along with lower upper-ocean heat content values.
Therefore, slow weakening is indicated from days 3 to 5.  The
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory
after adjusting for the initial strength, and lies between the
forecasts of the SHIPS and LGEM models, which continue to perform
quite well with Jimena.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 12.1N 121.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 12.2N 122.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 12.3N 124.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 12.8N 126.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 13.6N 128.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  31/0600Z 15.4N 133.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  01/0600Z 16.9N 137.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 17.8N 140.0W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


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Page last modified: Friday, 28-Aug-2015 08:38:12 UTC