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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 242035
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
300 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016

Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that the area of low
pressure located well southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, now has a
well-defined center and enough convective organization to be
considered a tropical cyclone.  The initial intensity is set to 30
kt based on the latest Dvorak Data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB.  The
environment appears favorable for steady intensification during the
first 3 days, as the cyclone is forecast to move over SSTs above
28C but the shear remains 10 kt or higher much of that time.  Ocean
temperatures cool a little at days 4 and 5 and the mid-level
atmosphere dries out a bit, which could result in some slow
weakening.  The NHC forecast is close to the IVCN intensity
consensus through the forecast period.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/12.  The
cyclone will be steered generally west-northwestward for the next
48 hours with a decrease in forward speed along the southwestern
side of a weakening mid-level ridge.  Later in the period, a
westward acceleration is expected as a mid-level ridge builds to
the north of the tropical cyclone.  In general the track model
guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, although there is
some cross-track spread, with the HWRF and ECMWF to the south and
the COAMPS-TC and especially the GFDL farther north.  The NHC
forecast lies south of the TVCN multi-model consensus and in between
the GFS and the latest GFS/ECMWF blend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 15.2N 109.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 15.9N 111.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 16.5N 113.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 17.1N 114.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 17.5N 115.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 18.0N 118.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 18.0N 123.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 18.0N 128.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 24-Aug-2016 20:36:09 UTC