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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 281433
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The depression continues to lack banding features, and the low-level
center is located near the northwestern edge of a recent flare-up of
deep convection.  Subjective Dvorak estimates are unchanged from six
hours ago, while final-T numbers from the UW-CIMSS ADT have been
decreasing.  The initial winds are therefore kept at 30 kt.  The
SHIPS diagnostics indicate that 15-20 kt of north-northwesterly
shear is currently affecting the depression.  The shear is expected
to decrease gradually after 12-24 hours, but then the cyclone will
also be moving into a drier air mass.  The intensity and global
models show no or minimal strengthening, but the official forecast
still allows for the system to become a tropical storm sometime
during the next 24 hours.  Dissipation could occur earlier than
shown below, with both the GFS and ECMWF showing the system becoming
an open trough by 72 hours.

The subtropical ridge continues to steer the depression west-
northwestward at about 11 kt.  The cyclone is expected to turn
westward later today and maintain that trajectory until it
dissipates in three or four days.  No significant changes were made
to the NHC track forecast, which lies very close to the GFS-ECMWF
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 16.4N 129.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 16.7N 130.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 17.0N 133.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 17.2N 135.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 17.2N 138.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  31/1200Z 16.8N 144.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 28-Jul-2015 14:33:31 UTC