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Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 220834
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ASCAT passes at 0338 UTC and 0430 UTC indicated that the cyclone
was producing winds of 35 kt in a small area to the north of the
center.  Since that time, the convective pattern has become
significantly better organized, and it is estimated that the system
is now a 40-kt tropical storm.  Earlier microwave data indicated
that Marie has a well-defined low-level ring, which can often be a
precursor to rapid intensification if environmental conditions are
favorable.  With waters near 30 degrees Celsius, high levels of
atmospheric moisture, and favorable upper-level diffluence, it
appears that RI is a definite possibility, and Marie could become a
hurricane in about 24 hours.  Environmental conditions are
expected to remain conducive for strengthening for much of the
forecast period, and in fact, the global models indicate significant
deepening of the cyclone through about day 4 before Marie reaches
cooler waters.  The statistical-dynamical models are also
incredibly aggressive, with the SHIPS model making Marie a category
4 hurricane in 4 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is roughly
between the SHIPS and LGEM models, which are the highest of the
guidance.  This is higher than the previous forecast, and it now
explicitly shows Marie becoming a major hurricane later in the
forecast period.

Marie's initial motion is 290/16 kt.  A mid-level high is centered
near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast with a ridge extending
westward into northern Mexico.  The ridge is expected to build
westward over the Pacific waters during the next few days, and this
pattern should keep Marie on a west-northwestward motion for much of
the forecast period.  The model guidance is tightly clustered, and
the NHC track forecast was only shifted slightly westward on this
advisory to follow the overall model trend.

It should be noted that the global models show Marie becoming a
large cyclone in a few days.  The forecast wind radii have been
expanded, but additional increases may be required in future
advisories.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 12.8N 101.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 13.2N 103.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 14.0N 105.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 14.7N 106.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 15.4N 108.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 17.0N 112.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 21.5N 119.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg



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Page last modified: Friday, 22-Aug-2014 08:34:20 UTC