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Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 282032
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

Deep convection has been absent from Marie since around the time of
the previous advisory. Convection seems unlikely to return given
that the cyclone is moving over waters of around 22C. If convection
does not return, the cyclone will likely be declared post-tropical
tonight. The vortex still has an impressive presentation in visible
satellite imagery, with a tight swirl of low clouds and a
circulation that spans about 10 degrees of latitude. The initial
intensity of 35 kt is in agreement with the latest Dvorak
classification from TAFB. Only slow weakening is forecast during the
next few days given the scale of the circulation, and the remnant
low is expected to persist through the 5-day period.

The initial motion estimate is 310/14. A general northwestward
motion is expected through 48 hours while the cyclone remains under
the influence of a mid-level ridge centered near the coast of
southern California. By 72 hours Marie is forecast to slow down
considerably and turn westward and then west-southwestward by the
end of the period as it is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous one after adjusting for
the initial position and motion.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 26.1N 130.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 27.4N 132.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  29/1800Z 28.8N 133.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/0600Z 29.8N 135.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/1800Z 30.6N 136.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/1800Z 30.9N 138.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1800Z 30.6N 140.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/1800Z 30.0N 142.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan



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Page last modified: Thursday, 28-Aug-2014 20:32:33 UTC