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Tropical Depression ROSLYN Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 290256
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016
800 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016

A small area of deep convection continues to fire to the north of
the center of the cyclone, with little change in Roslyn during the
past several hours.  The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt in
accordance with the past ASCAT data.  The cyclone should move over
progressively cooler water in a strongly sheared and dry
environment.  Thus, weakening should occur, and the new forecast is
an update of the previous one, showing Roslyn decaying to a remnant
low in 12 hours.

The depression continues moving northward, now at 6 kt.  Roslyn
should turn northwestward and then westward before dissipation in
about 2 days while the shallow cyclone becomes increasingly
steered by a low-level ridge to the north.  The new track forecast
is a little slower than and south of the previous one since the
latest guidance has trended in that direction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 22.1N 115.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 22.8N 115.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/0000Z 23.2N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/1200Z 23.2N 116.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


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Page last modified: Thursday, 29-Sep-2016 02:57:10 UTC