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Tropical Storm GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 270837
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016
200 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016

Georgette is on borrowed time.  Enhanced IR imagery shows no deep
convection associated with the system, and if this condition
persists, the cyclone will be declared a remnant low later today.
The official forecast delays this event slightly, to allow for the
possibility that thunderstorms may redevelop in the circulation.
A scatterometer overpass indicated that the maximum winds were 35
kt, and that these tropical-storm-force winds were confined to the
northeastern quadrant of the system.  A continued spin down of the
circulation over cooler waters is forecast and the cyclone should
dissipate in 2-3 days.

The center is difficult to locate on night time images, but my best
estimate of initial motion is 310/5 kt.  Georgette, or its remnant
low, should move on a west-northwestward to westward heading, within
the low-level tradewinds, until dissipation.  The official track
forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 19.1N 129.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 19.8N 130.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 20.6N 132.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/1800Z 21.2N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/0600Z 21.2N 136.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 27-Jul-2016 08:37:21 UTC