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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 280250
TCDEP3

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Lester has gone through some impressive changes this evening.  The
well-developed eye has disappeared during the past couple of hours
on satellite images, with decreasing convection noted in the eastern
eyewall.  A blend of the Dvorak estimates from all agencies
supported increasing the winds to 95 kt at the synoptic time, but
I have elected to show an initial wind speed of 90 kt given the
recent degradation on satellite.

The hurricane should be in a low-shear, marginal-moisture
environment for the next several days, with only gradually
decreasing water temperatures expected as Lester moves nearly
parallel to the typical eastern Pacific SST gradient.  Most of the
guidance suggest that Lester's intensity will peak within the next
24 hours, then slowly fall.  This is a trickier forecast than it
seems because the forecast environmental conditions are reminiscent
of those necessary for an annular hurricane, which would likely keep
Lester stronger than much of the guidance.  At this point, given
the recent satellite trends, the official intensity prediction is
kept the same as the previous one, a bit higher than the intensity
consensus.

The initial motion estimate remains 270/11.  A strong subtropical
ridge to the north of Lester should steer the cyclone on a westward
course for at least the next 3 to 4 days.  After that time,
uncertainties increase with both the strength of the ridge and
any potential binary interaction with Madeline.  There have been
very little changes to the overall guidance suite, and the new NHC
track forecast is near the previous one, nudged a bit to the west
at longer ranges.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 18.0N 120.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 18.1N 122.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 18.2N 125.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 18.3N 128.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 18.4N 131.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  31/0000Z 18.6N 136.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  01/0000Z 18.7N 140.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  02/0000Z 19.5N 145.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake



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Page last modified: Sunday, 28-Aug-2016 02:50:22 UTC