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Tropical Storm ROSLYN Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 270833
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016

Roslyn's center appears to be losing some definition in infrared
satellite imagery, and all of the associated deep convection is
displaced to the north and northeast due to strong southwesterly
shear.  Roslyn fell within the nadir gap of the latest ASCAT
passes, but the initial intensity is set at 40 kt based on a
gradual lowering of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.
This value is also in accordance with the most recent UW-CIMSS
SATCON estimate.  Increasing shear, gradually cooling SSTs, and dry
mid-level air should induce additional weakening, and deep
convection is likely to dissipate within the next day or two.
The new NHC intensity forecast shows Roslyn becoming a remnant low
in 36 hours, and it is expected to open up into a trough by day 4.

The initial motion is now northeastward, or 050/6 kt.  Roslyn is
expected to turn northward toward a deep-layer low located over the
Baja California peninsula during the next 36 hours.  It should then
turn northwestward and west-northwestward on days 2 and 3 after it
has become a remnant low, steered by lower-level ridging.  The
official track forecast has again been nudged east of the previous
advisory toward the latest TVCN multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 17.8N 117.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 18.7N 117.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 20.0N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 21.3N 116.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/0600Z 22.3N 117.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0600Z 23.5N 119.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 27-Sep-2016 08:33:59 UTC