| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Post-Tropical Cyclone RACHEL Forecast Discussion (Text)


Home   Public Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 302057
TCDEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Rachel artfully draws to a close. Deep convection associated with
Rachel dissipated about 15 hours ago and it is unlikely to redevelop
due to unfavorable thermodynamic factors and strong shear.  Based on
these conditions, the cyclone is being declared a post-tropical
remnant low at this time. Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased
further and the initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt. Global
model guidance shows the remnant low degenerating into an open
trough by Friday.  The official intensity forecast is close to the
previous forecast and the GFS model.

During the last couple of hours, the now-shallow vortex associated
with Rachel has taken on a southward drift.  A slow southwestward
motion is expected during the next two days as it continues to move
around the eastern periphery of a low-level ridge.  The track
forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, nearly
between the ECMWF and GFS model solutions.

This is the last advisory on Rachel by the National Hurricane
Center. For additional information on the remnant low please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 22.9N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  01/0600Z 22.8N 117.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  01/1800Z 22.6N 118.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/0600Z 22.4N 119.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/1800Z 22.2N 119.9W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Ramos


Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 30-Sep-2014 20:57:43 UTC