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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 291440
TCDEP3

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
800 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016

Lester's satellite presentation is quite impressive this morning.
The cyclone's eye continues to warm and and the inner core
cloud top temperatures have cooled considerably.  A blend of 1200
UTC satellite intensity estimates of 105 kt, and a recent ADT
objective intensity estimate yields an increased initial intensity
of 110 kt for this advisory.

Lester should remain in a low-shear environment for the next several
days, with only some gradual decrease in the oceanic water
temperature.  The majority of the intensity guidance indicate that
the hurricane will peak within the next 12 hours or so, then
gradual decrease.  It appears that the atmospheric environment and
the sea surface temperatures match similar criteria for an annular
hurricane manifestation.  If Lester acquires annular hurricane
characteristics, the cyclone could remain stronger longer than
reflected in the official forecast and what the intensity guidance
suggests.  The NHC forecast is adjusted a bit higher in the short
term, then shows gradual weakening and falls in line with the IVCN
multi-model consensus.

The initial motion estimate remains 270/13.  A strong, deep-layer
ridge to the north of Lester should steer the cyclone on a continued
westward course during the next 3 days.  Beyond that period, the
large-scale models indicate some interaction with Madeline to the
southwest of Lester which induces a gradual turn toward the
west-northwest through day 5.  The official forecast follows suit
and is based on a multi-model consensus and is quite similar to the
previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 18.1N 129.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 18.1N 131.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 18.2N 133.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 18.2N 135.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  31/1200Z 18.2N 138.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 18.4N 143.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 19.3N 147.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  03/1200Z 21.0N 153.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts



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Page last modified: Monday, 29-Aug-2016 14:40:42 UTC