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Hurricane GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 260232
TCDEP3

HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016
800 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016

Georgette has been on a steady weakening trend today.  Although the
eye of the hurricane is still apparent in visible images, it is
much less distinct than it was earlier today.  In addition, the
convective pattern has become more ragged in appearance and is
stretched from north to south.  The initial wind speed is lowered
to 85 kt, in agreement with a blend of the Final T- and CI-numbers
from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin.  Georgette is a small cyclone, and based on earlier
scatterometer data, the tropical-storm-force winds extend only 40 n
mi from the center.

The hurricane is over SSTs of about 25 deg C, and it is headed for
even cooler waters during the next few days.  These unfavorable
oceanic conditions combined with a drier air mass and an increase
in southeasterly shear should cause additional steady or even rapid
weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the
SHIPS guidance and now calls for Georgette to become a remnant low
in 48 hours and dissipate by day 4.

Satellite fixes indicate that Georgette has slowed down, as
predicted, and the latest initial motion estimate is 310/6 kt.  A
continued slow northwestward motion is expected during the next day
or so while the system moves toward an upper-level low to its
northwest.  After that time, the shallow cyclone is expected to
turn toward the west-northwest and accelerate in the low-level
trade wind flow.  The NHC track forecast is a little slower than
the previous one to come in better agreement with the multi-model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 18.2N 128.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 18.6N 128.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 19.3N 129.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 20.3N 130.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 21.1N 132.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/0000Z 22.4N 136.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 26-Jul-2016 02:32:47 UTC