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Tropical Depression ROSLYN Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 282033
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016
200 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016

Roslyn has developed a new burst of convection to the north of the
exposed low-level center, and this is sufficient to keep the
cyclone from degenerating to a remnant low.  Recent ASCAT data show
winds near 30 kt in the northwestern quadrant, so the initial
intensity is unchanged from the previous advisory.  A combination of
decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track,
abundant dry air seen in water vapor imagery, and 30-35 kt of shear
should cause Roslyn to degenerate to a remnant low in 12 hours or
less.  The latest dynamical models show the remnant low dissipating
completely by 48 hours, and this is now reflected in the intensity
forecast.

The initial motion is now 360/6.  Roslyn should turn northwestward
and then west-northwestward before dissipation as the weakening
cyclone become increasingly steered by a low-level ridge to the
north.  The new track forecast is essentially an update of the
previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 21.6N 115.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 22.4N 115.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  29/1800Z 23.0N 116.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/0600Z 23.3N 117.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 28-Sep-2016 20:33:58 UTC