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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 282031
TCDEP3

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A distinct eye cleared out in both visible and infrared satellite
imagery around 1800 UTC, and convective cloud tops surrounding the
eye are as cold as -75 degrees Celsius.  Dvorak intensity estimates
were T5.0/90 kt from TAFB and T4.5/77 kt from SAB at 1800 UTC, and
the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimate is T5.4/100 kt.  The initial
intensity is therefore raised to 90 kt on this advisory.  Jimena
continues to rapidly intensify, with the intensity having increased
by 35-40 kt in the past 24 hours.

The environment near Jimena remains conducive for further
strengthening.  Low shear and very warm ocean water could allow
rapid intensification to continue, and the SHIPS Rapid
Intensification Index is showing a 43 percent chance of a 30-kt
increase in intensity during the next 24 hours.  Based on the
latest statistical-dynamical guidance, a peak in intensity is likely
to occur between 36 and 48 hours.  After that time, a slightly
drier air mass and decreasing oceanic heat content should lead to a
gradual weakening through day 5.  The NHC intensity forecast
continues to be a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM guidance, which have
performed better than the dynamical guidance with Jimena's
strengthening.  As was noted earlier today, once Jimena reaches its
peak as a major hurricane, fluctuations in intensity that deviate
from the official forecast are likely due to possible eyewall
replacements.

Jimena is still moving westward, or 270/10 kt.  The strong
deep-layer ridge to the north of the hurricane is expected to
weaken within 24 hours, which should allow Jimena to turn
west-northwestward by this time tomorrow.  This trajectory should
then continue through day 5.  The track guidance remains tightly
clustered, although the GFS and the ECMWF shifted a bit
northeastward on this cycle and lie near the edge of the guidance
envelope.  Due to this shift, the new NHC track forecast lies
slightly right of and a little slower than the previous forecast
through 48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 12.3N 123.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 12.4N 124.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 12.9N 126.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 13.7N 128.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 14.6N 130.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  31/1800Z 16.2N 135.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 17.2N 138.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 17.7N 140.7W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


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Page last modified: Friday, 28-Aug-2015 20:31:49 UTC