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Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 191516
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14...corrected
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

corrected to initial intensity

Data from a SSMI/S satellite at 1144 UTC revealed that the center
of Polo was a little farther to the southeast than previously
indicated. The initial position has then been adjusted accordingly.

The cloud pattern has not changed very much, and a blend of
satellite intensity estimates with an earlier ASCAT pass is
consistent in keeping the winds at 60 kt. Most of the guidance
show a significant increase in the easterly shear over Polo, and
with cooler waters along the expected track of Polo, the NHC
forecast calls for weakening. Polo will likely be a remnant low in
96 hours or earlier.

The initial motion is a little uncertain given the small adjustment
in the initial position. The best estimate is toward the west-
northwest or 300 degrees at 6 kt.  The mid-level ridge over northern
Mexico is forecast to build westward, and this pattern should force
Polo to move on a west-northwest to west track during the next
several days. The NHC forecast is not very different from the
previous one, except during the first 12 hours or so due to the
adjustment of the initial position. The rest of the forecast
forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus and to the
average of the GFS and the ECMWF. These models, as well as the
official forecast, keep the center of Polo well south of the the
southern portion of the Baja California peninsula.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 19.3N 107.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 19.8N 108.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 20.7N 109.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 21.4N 110.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 21.7N 112.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 22.5N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 22.5N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/1200Z 22.5N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila



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Page last modified: Friday, 19-Sep-2014 15:16:37 UTC