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Tropical Storm LOWELL Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 231437
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Lowell has been devoid of deep convection since around 1000 UTC. If
deep convection does not regenerate, which seems unlikely given that
the cyclone is moving over SSTs around 23C, Lowell could become a
post-tropical cyclone by tonight. The initial intensity of 35 kt is
based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The cyclone should
gradually spin down during the next few days as it remains over cool
SSTs and in a stable airmass.

The initial motion estimate remains 310/7 kt. Lowell is expected to
turn west-northwestward tonight and continue moving generally
west-northwestward through the period under the influence of a
low-level ridge to the north. There continues to be a large spread
in the track model guidance after 48 hours, with the ECMWF showing
more poleward motion at days 4 and 5 while the GFS and GEFS ensemble
mean show a more westward track. The new NHC track forecast is
between the two camps and a little to the left of the previous
advisory, trending toward the latest TVCE multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 23.7N 126.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 24.4N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  24/1200Z 25.1N 128.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/0000Z 25.4N 129.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/1200Z 25.8N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/1200Z 27.0N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1200Z 28.5N 139.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/1200Z 30.0N 143.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan



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Page last modified: Saturday, 23-Aug-2014 14:38:09 UTC