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Post-Tropical Cyclone FELICIA Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 250232
TCDEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072015
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 24 2015

Felicia has been devoid of deep convection for nearly 10 hours, and
since the cyclone is over sea surface temperatures of around 23 deg
C, there is little likelihood of the system making comeback.
On this basis, Felicia is being declared a remnant low with 25-kt
winds, and this is the last advisory. Continued weakening of the
cyclone is expected while it remains over cool waters and ingests
drier and more stable air.  Dissipation is predicted in 2 to
3 days, following the global models.

The remnant low is moving northwestward at about 11 kt.  The
shallow system is expected to turn west-northwestward on Saturday
and westward on Sunday within the low-level trade wind flow.  The
official track forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF
models.

For additional information on this system please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI,  WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 23.4N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  25/1200Z 23.9N 121.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/0000Z 24.2N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/1200Z 24.4N 124.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0000Z 24.4N 125.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


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Page last modified: Saturday, 25-Jul-2015 02:32:24 UTC