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Post-Tropical Cyclone KAY Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 232034
TCDEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Kay has been devoid of deep convection for about 12 hours.  Since
the system is over waters of around 24 deg C and forecast to soon
move over even cooler waters, deep convection is not expected to
return.  On this basis, Kay is being declared a post-tropical
cyclone on this advisory.  Dissipation is forecast by the global
models just after 24 hours.

The post-tropical cyclone is moving a little faster toward the
northwest or 310/11.  A turn toward the west-northwest or west is
likely before the low dissipates tomorrow.

This is the last advisory from the National Hurricane Center on this
system.  For additional information on the remnant low please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 23.5N 121.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  24/0600Z 23.6N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  24/1800Z 23.7N 124.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 23-Aug-2016 20:35:05 UTC