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Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 252033
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072014
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

The low-level center of the cyclone is located to the west of the
convection due to westerly wind shear. The cloud pattern is not
well organized with the outflow very limited at this time.
T-numbers are still 2.5 on the Dvorak scale, and a recent
scatterometer overpass still indicates 35-40 kt winds.  The initial
intensity is thus kept at 40 knots. Global models as well as
statistical guidance continue to forecast an unfavorable environment
near the cyclone. In addition, the cyclone is heading to an area of
lower sea surface temperatures. This should result in gradual
weakening during the next few days.

Genevieve has slowed down a little bit and is now moving westward at
6 knots.  An eastward-moving trough in the westerlies is weakening
the subtropical ride north of the cyclone, and consequently, the
cyclone is forecast to decrease in forward speed during the next day
or so. The ridge is forecast to rebuild westward as the trough moves
out, and this pattern will keep Genevieve on a general west to
west-northwest track for the next 5 days.  During the latter portion
of the forecast, the cyclone will likely become a shallow
post-tropical cyclone, steered westward by the low-level flow. The
official forecast continues very close to the multi-model consensus
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 12.2N 136.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 12.3N 136.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 12.5N 137.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 12.9N 139.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 13.3N 140.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 13.8N 144.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 14.0N 148.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/1800Z 14.0N 151.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila



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Page last modified: Friday, 25-Jul-2014 20:33:59 UTC